Penn State Football vs. Illinois Week 5 Betting Picks, Odds, and Predictions for 2024
The 2024 college football season is heating up, and all eyes are on Penn State football as the Nittany Lions face off against the Illinois Fighting Illini in Week 5. For fans and bettors alike, this Big Ten matchup promises to be a crucial turning point for both teams. Penn State is looking to solidify its standing as a top-10 team, while Illinois, the perennial underdog, is riding a wave of momentum after upsetting two ranked teams this season.
For bettors, this is a game worth diving deep into, not only because of the potential for drama on the field but also for the strategic betting opportunities it presents. Whether you’re looking to take advantage of the latest BetMGM bonus code or simply make a more informed wager, understanding the ins and outs of this game is crucial.
Let’s break down the Penn State football vs. Illinois matchup, analyze the odds, and explore the best betting picks for Week 5.
Betting Odds: Penn State Football vs. Illinois (Week 5)
Here are the current betting odds for the Penn State vs. Illinois game:
- Spread: Penn State -17.5 (FanDuel); Illinois +18 (Caesars)
- Total: Over/Under 47.5 (Caesars/FanDuel)
- Moneyline: Penn State -900 (BetMGM); Illinois +625 (BetMGM)
With Penn State coming into the game as heavy favorites, the betting lines reflect the gap in talent and ranking between the two teams. However, as we’ll discuss, the spread of 17.5 to 18 points may be larger than it should be, given Illinois’ track record this season.
Penn State Football 2024: Living Up to the Hype, But With Questions
Coming into the 2024 season, Penn State football was surrounded by hype and high expectations. Ranked in the top 10, many analysts viewed the Nittany Lions as legitimate contenders for the College Football Playoff. However, four weeks into the season, the jury is still out on whether Penn State has the consistency to make that leap.
In Week 1, Penn State opened with an impressive win against West Virginia, a team expected to challenge them in the trenches. The Nittany Lions controlled the game on both sides of the ball, with their defense showing early signs of dominance. However, Week 2 brought a close call that left fans and analysts scratching their heads. Penn State barely squeaked by Bowling Green, a MAC team that shouldn’t have posed much of a threat. Despite a comfortable win over Kent State in Week 3, the question remains: is Penn State football truly a top-10 team, or are they benefitting from a soft early schedule?
One area where Penn State has excelled is on defense. The Nittany Lions rank in the top 30 nationally in several key defensive categories, including passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed. Their offense, led by a solid ground game, has also been effective, ranking in the top 30 in rushing yards and passing efficiency. However, these statistics are somewhat skewed by the weaker opponents they’ve faced so far.
As Penn State enters Week 5, they’ll be looking to make a statement against Illinois, a team that may not have the same level of talent but has proven capable of punching above its weight.
Illinois: The Dangerous Underdog
In contrast to the national attention that Penn State football has received, Illinois has flown under the radar for much of the season. That changed quickly after the Illini pulled off two significant upsets against ranked opponents in the first few weeks of the season. These victories have given Illinois a surge of confidence, propelling them into the top 20 and making them a legitimate threat in the Big Ten.
Illinois plays a gritty, hard-nosed brand of football. They don’t put up eye-popping numbers, but they are incredibly effective at controlling the tempo of games. The Illini focus on a run-heavy offense that chews up the clock and limits the number of possessions their opponents get. This strategy has served them well, particularly in close games, where their ability to grind out wins has been on full display.
While Illinois doesn’t have any individual standout performers, their team-oriented approach has made them a tough matchup for any opponent. They play disciplined football, limiting turnovers and minimizing costly penalties. This makes them especially dangerous as an underdog, as they’re unlikely to beat themselves with unforced errors.
Heading into their matchup with Penn State football, Illinois will be looking to keep the game close, rely on their defense to force mistakes, and capitalize on any opportunities that come their way. While they may not have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with the Nittany Lions in a shootout, they have proven they can hang tough with ranked teams, and they’ll be hoping to do the same this week.
Key Factors in the Penn State Football vs. Illinois Matchup
As we look ahead to this pivotal Week 5 matchup, several key factors will play a significant role in determining the outcome of the game:
1. Strength of Schedule
One of the most significant differences between Penn State football and Illinois this season has been the level of competition they’ve faced. While Penn State has enjoyed a relatively soft schedule, Illinois has already battled—and beaten—two ranked teams. This disparity in experience could give Illinois an edge when it comes to handling the pressure of a close game. The Illini are battle-tested, whereas Penn State has yet to face a true challenge in the Big Ten.
2. Game Tempo
Illinois has excelled at dictating the pace of their games this season. Their ground-and-pound rushing attack eats up the clock and limits their opponents’ scoring opportunities. This strategy could be especially effective against Penn State football, a team that thrives on creating explosive plays and scoring quickly. If Illinois can control the tempo, they’ll have a chance to keep the game within reach and cover the spread.
3. Turnovers
Turnovers are always a critical factor in football, and this game will be no exception. Penn State’s defense has been opportunistic, forcing turnovers and creating momentum for their offense. However, Illinois has been remarkably careful with the football this season, limiting their turnovers and avoiding costly mistakes. If Illinois can continue to play mistake-free football, they’ll have a chance to hang tough against Penn State and make things interesting in the fourth quarter.
4. Motivation and Mindset
For Penn State football, this game is about more than just getting a win—it’s about proving they belong in the national conversation. The Nittany Lions need a convincing victory to silence their critics and solidify their standing as a top-10 team. Illinois, on the other hand, is playing with house money. They’ve already exceeded expectations this season, and they have nothing to lose in this matchup. This underdog mentality often leads to aggressive, fearless play, which can catch heavily favored teams off guard.
Expert Pick: Illinois +18
While Penn State football enters this game as a 17.5- to 18-point favorite, the spread may be too large given Illinois’ ability to stay competitive against ranked teams. Penn State has yet to face a true test this season, and their inconsistent play in Week 2 raises concerns about whether they can cover such a large spread against a disciplined Illinois team.
Illinois has proven they can hang with top-tier opponents, and their ability to control the tempo and limit turnovers makes them a strong bet to cover the +18 spread. While Penn State is certainly the more talented team, Illinois’ grit and determination should keep the game closer than expected.
Prediction: A Defensive Battle
This game is shaping up to be a low-scoring, defensive battle, with both teams relying heavily on their rushing attacks and looking to avoid mistakes. Penn State football will likely take control early, but Illinois’ ability to grind down the clock and limit possessions should prevent the Nittany Lions from pulling away.
Final Score Prediction: Penn State 27, Illinois 17
While Penn State will likely emerge victorious, Illinois should be able to keep the game within two scores. With both teams playing conservative football, the total points (47.5) may fall under, and turnovers could play a crucial role in determining the final margin.
Conclusion: Bet on Illinois to Cover
Ultimately, while Penn State football has the talent and ranking advantage, Illinois’ gritty playstyle and ability to control the game’s tempo make them a strong pick to cover the spread. Penn State may win, but Illinois will likely make it a much closer contest than the oddsmakers suggest. For bettors, the smart money is on Illinois to cover the +18 spread, while Penn State should still walk away with the win.
